Followers are hopeful that Walt Disney World will construct a fifth theme park given the billions of {dollars} the corporate plans to take a position on growth in Florida. This makes the pessimistic prediction {that a} fifth gate received’t come to WDW any time quickly…and shouldn’t! Right here’s why it received’t occur, what we’ll get as an alternative at Magic Kingdom and past, and why that’s higher for followers. (Up to date June 1, 2024.)
It is a subject that has been mentioned to dying by Walt Disney World followers for some time. As quickly as Animal Kingdom opened, individuals started seeking to the longer term once more at what would come subsequent. To some extent, this was comprehensible. California Journey and Tokyo DisneySea each opened a number of years later, with new parks in Paris, Hong Kong, and Shanghai after that. All provided superb points of interest and lands that Walt Disney World followers would love to see in Florida.
Extra lately, there’s been quite a bit within the final year-plus that’s given followers optimism that Walt Disney World will construct a fifth (and even sixth!) theme park in coming years. This has actually kicked into excessive gear within the final couple of months, after the corporate hosted Wall Road analysts and buyers at Walt Disney World for an investor summit. That’s the place they first revealed a plan to double funding to $60 billion in Disney Parks over the subsequent decade.
June 1, 2024 Replace: Following the settlement of a lawsuit between the events over the previous former Reedy Creek Enchancment District, a improvement settlement has been reached between the Central Florida Tourism Oversight District (CFTOD) and Walt Disney World. Amongst different issues, the jointly-drafted and agreed-upon improvement settlement gives for minimal funding quantities over the lifetime of the 15-year settlement.
The event settlement commits the Walt Disney Firm to take a position as much as $17 billion from Walt Disney World over the subsequent 10 to twenty years. Underneath the phrases of the deal, Disney is required to take a position no less than $8 billion throughout the first 10 years of the settlement. Disney additionally agrees to fund no less than $10 million in reasonably priced housing tasks and create a neighborhood enterprise hiring program that may award no less than 50% of all development work to Florida-based companies.
The event settlement covers the roughly 17,300 acres owned by Disney in Central Florida. One wrinkle in regards to the settlement that has caught the eye of followers is that it authorizes a most of 5 main theme parks, which is yet one more than the present depend (Magic Kingdom, EPCOT, Hollywood Studios, and Animal Kingdom). It additionally permits a most of 5 minor theme parks (assume Blizzard Seaside, Hurricane Lagoon, and different area of interest ideas) in addition to almost 1.3 million sq. toes of workplace house, 1.7 million sq. toes of restaurant/retail house and 53,467 resort rooms.
This has followers excited, as a result of absolutely this language was included purposefully as a result of Walt Disney World has plans to construct a fifth gate, proper? RIGHT?! Incorrect. The settlement merely provides Disney the autonomy to construct a fifth park–preserving its choices open–with out having to revisit the event settlement. Severely, that is like DisneylandForward another time, with followers making big assumptions that can’t conceivably come true.
The useless giveaway of this ought to be the truth that the event settlement additionally authorizes Walt Disney World to construct three extra minor theme parks…regardless of the corporate not even working each of its current water parks concurrently. Nobody severely believes Disney goes to construct extra different water parks or different area of interest ideas, so why get your hopes up over a theoretical fifth gate that Disney has–not as soon as–evinced an urge for food to construct. We already know a few of what the corporate plans to do within the coming decade. And none of it’s a fifth gate!
The actual story right here is–or ought to be–that the Walt Disney Firm and the state of Florida in addition to the CFTOD have repaired their relationship and are working collectively once more. That is massively constructive information for what the corporate truly plans to assemble at Walt Disney World. (That is one thing we first mentioned in Disney “Responds” to Common’s Epic Universe–but it surely’s good to see ahead momentum proceed!)
Except for that, there isn’t actually any new-news right here. Disney Parks Chairman Josh D’Amaro and CEO Bob Iger have hyped funding and “turbocharging” progress in Parks & Resorts during the last yr. Even the quantity isn’t new–though the $60 billion quantity for all of Parks & Resorts has been talked up extra, the corporate revealed $17 billion funding plans for Walt Disney World over a yr in the past.
Even with super optimism for the way forward for the Florida Undertaking, we nonetheless do NOT anticipate a fifth gate at Walt Disney World. First, as a result of each Iger and D’Amaro have particularly stated they wish to broaden the prevailing parks. Throughout the many interviews the 2 have provided that mentioned plans for the longer term and bullishness on parks, they talked about capacity-expanding additions.
We mentioned all of this in nice size in Bob Iger Desires Massive Expansions at Walt Disney World & Disneyland and once more in Reimaginings Contained in the Park and ‘Past the Berm’ Enlargement at Magic Kingdom. There are not any scarcity of quotes from Iger and D’Amaro about reimaginings and new lands on the current Walt Disney World parks. There are zero about fifth gates.
Iger and D’Amaro are cautious and deliberate when talking publicly, selecting their phrases fastidiously. If there have been plans for brand spanking new theme parks, they’d say as a lot. As a substitute, they repeatedly have invoked Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge, Toy Story Land, and Pandora – World of Avatar because the blueprints for a way Disney plans to broaden its parks and “put money into growing capability” and “alternative inside these current footprints to optimize.” These phrases are fairly clear.
If that’s not sufficient for you, there are the ideas which have already been introduced or teased. Walt Disney World has solely confirmed one main growth challenge, the Tropical Americas at Animal Kingdom. Past that, they’ve repeatedly recommended there are plans for Past Massive Thunder in Magic Kingdom. They’ve additionally talked about World of Frozen and Wakanda lands coming to Disneyland and Walt Disney World–however not in new parks.
There’s actually no want to take a position. D’Amaro and Iger have repeatedly and persistently shared the plan, and it’s not for a fifth gate!
Followers are additionally that headline $60 billion or $17 billion quantity and performing some dreaming of their very own. To make certain, these are colossal sums of cash. Taking simply the $17 billion, which is conceivably sufficient for fifth, sixth, and seventh gates. That’s theoretically sufficient for roughly three new Shanghai Disneylands (~$5.5 billion upon opening in 2016).
Nevertheless, there’s zero likelihood of a fifth gate at Walt Disney World costing that little except it had been achieved within the spirit of the OG Walt Disney Studios Park in France and, belief me, nobody truly desires that mess. For one factor, development isn’t as low cost in america as it’s in China (that was additionally virtually a decade in the past).
Labor and materials prices have skyrocketed and Disney doesn’t have an awesome observe document of preserving prices in examine. A brand new Disney theme park in Florida would simply price $8 billion except it had been an absolute barebones, half-day park.
On high of that, that is all of the CapEx at Walt Disney World over the course of a decade. Even Disney may construct a brand new park for $6-7 billion, that may be a giant chunk of that complete, and would necessitate CapEx reductions within the current 4 parks as in comparison with the final decade.
At first blush, $17 billion looks like a ton of cash, but it surely’s truly solely barely above the final decade at Walt Disney World when adjusted for inflation (it might not be above it in any respect when wanting completely at development prices). To make certain, there have been a ton of superior additions during the last decade–and it’d be nice to get one other 10 years of that–however zero new parks.
Constructing a fifth theme park at Walt Disney World would imply that the Tropical Americas and Past Massive Thunder tasks, which they’ve already stated are taking place, wouldn’t be capable of occur. (Relaxation assured, they very a lot are taking place…together with a number of different main uannunced tasks that’ll price no less than a number of hundred million a pop.)
Nonetheless, many Walt Disney World followers assume a fifth gate should occur for one easy purpose: as an “reply” to Common’s Epic Universe, the third theme park being inbuilt Central Florida by Comcast. Many followers imagine Walt Disney World must have a response to Epic Universe, and the one factor that may actually compete with a brand new theme park is a brand new theme park.
In all probability, Tropical Americas is the subsequent main challenge on the horizon (outdoors of journey reimaginings) and it’ll begin in late 2024 and be achieved in 2026 or 2027. It seems more and more doubtless that Walt Disney World goes to “sit out” 2025 and never attempt to compete with Epic Universe.
Assuming, for the sake of argument, that Walt Disney World had constructed a fifth gate and it additionally opened in 2025. No less than with regards to theme park followers or individuals eager to do the new new factor, Epic Universe and that fictional Disney fifth gate aren’t going to compete with each other–they’d each cannibalize attendance from the prevailing parks.
That’s a pure segue right into a core level that Walt Disney World will solely ever construct one other theme park if it received’t draw back from its current gates. You may additionally hate to listen to this, however Walt Disney World isn’t going to construct one other park to cut back crowds or attendance in its present parks. There’s no situation the place they’re going to spend billions of {dollars} to tread water–that doesn’t make any sense.
Walt Disney World will solely construct one other park if it might probably enhance per visitor spending through trip length and add no less than ~8 million new visits to Walt Disney World’s cumulative complete in its first full yr. That may be a tough feat. The typical American’s trip is between 4 and 6 days lengthy, and that common has been on the decline for the final couple of many years with People leaving a document variety of trip days on the desk (there’s article after article in regards to the shrinking American trip).
Anecdotally, we’ve heard from many journey agent mates that the commonest “reply” from shoppers to rising prices at Walt Disney World is reducing size of keep. Quite than doing a full week or 6 days, they’re doing 4-5 and avoiding weekends. There’s truly oblique information to help this–look no additional than the slowdown on Saturdays and Sundays.
With the length of the common American trip on the decline, including extra gates is a troublesome promote. After factoring in journey days, many People already don’t have sufficient time to expertise all 4 parks plus Disney Springs or water parks plus no matter Common’s parks would possibly siphon away.
It is a downside as a result of it essentially implies that a brand new theme park at Walt Disney World would cannibalize attendance from the prevailing gates, no less than amongst phase of visitors. If nearly all of guests to Walt Disney World don’t have one other park day so as to add, constructing a fifth gate is a nonstarter. It’s simpler to get extra individuals to come back to the present parks than to take the present demographic and have them add one other day.
As at all times, there are outliers–and people of you studying this who measure your annual time at Walt Disney World in weeks are precisely that. However in case you’re studying this, you already don’t match the median visitor profile for Walt Disney World, so let me cease you proper there. You’re very a lot above common. It’s vital that we don’t confuse our personal trip time or preferences for the norm.
Then there are the logistical impediments or the explanation why constructing a brand new theme park can be much less fascinating than increasing current gates. Staffing shortages have been a scorching subject for the final couple of years, and though they’re largely resolved within the parks, it’s nonetheless not good. It’s a good labor market, with almost two job openings for each unemployed particular person. The foundation causes of this are past the scope of this submit, however the backside line is that it’s unlikely to alter within the Central Florida hospitality business.
Whether or not the native labor market (to not point out the housing market, which is already pricing hospitality business staff out–that’s the explanation why Disney helps to construct reasonably priced housing) can maintain not only one, however two extra parks, is an open query. It’s not simply these parks, both. There’s the $1.5 billion Evermore Orlando Resort, Area15, and dozens of different points of interest and resorts which can be below development. All of those locations want individuals to work at them.
After all, Walt Disney World has the Faculty Program and varied different technique of importing short-term staff from out of state–and that would actually assist present the workforce needed for a fifth gate–however to this point that has not been the case for his or her 4 gates within the final couple of years.
If Disney goes to allocate current or further staff to new developments, they’d in all probability prioritize timeshares and resorts over a theme park. There’s higher ROI and fewer danger, and people should not almost as resource-intensive. Personally, I feel Disney is probably going reticent to construct new resorts within the near-term, however timeshares are full steam forward.
In relation to rising theme park attendance, the better and less expensive resolution is the one we’ve been seeing during the last a number of years: increasing the prevailing parks. Walt Disney World has already constructed out the capability of its current gates with points of interest like Remy’s Ratatouille Journey, the Guardians of the Galaxy coaster, TRON Lightcycle Energy Run, and Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge.
This strategy of increasing the footprint of current parks or changing underutilized points of interest is advantageous from Disney’s perspective as a result of it retains infrastructure prices decrease. It additionally doesn’t require playing large on a brand new, untried idea and having to throw extra money at that sooner or later to spice up its recognition.
With a brand new park comes new toll plazas, ticket cubicles, turnstiles, backstage services, roads, transportation hubs, and different infrastructure that already exists in help of the prevailing theme parks. These infrastructure bills should not insignificant, and it’s tough to justify their expenditures when the prevailing parks might be built-out with out incurring all of those similar prices.
Then there are the working prices, which might even be larger with a brand new gate versus an current gate with added capability. New theme parks require extra labor (see above) for staffing stated toll plazas, ticket cubicles, turnstiles, transportation, and so forth. Merely put, increasing the prevailing parks is the conservative, cost-effective, and low-risk strategy. It prices much less for the corporate, and which means much less expense to be handed on to customers.
This brings us to the purpose that Walt Disney World ought to not construct a fifth gate. Right here, we’re switching gears from what is going to doubtless occur to what ought to occur. Frankly, Walt Disney World has no enterprise excited about one other brand-new theme park anytime quickly. I do know that is going to get me some hate mail, however hear me out.
Followers love the concept of a fifth theme park as a result of it’s a clean slate, able to holding an extended want checklist of rides and lands. As a substitute of getting 1-2 rides right here or there, we get a half-dozen new lands. I get it. A model new theme park is horny and thrilling, and it’s enjoyable to daydream about Florida DisneySea or no matter could be in your good park.
Don’t get me mistaken–I’d like to relive the sensation of setting foot in a model new park that’s completely unfamiliar. There’s nothing like that–expansions completely don’t examine! However I’m additionally a realist. It’s enjoyable to dream, however the sensible actuality of a brand new theme park within the late 2020s or early 2030s wouldn’t be good or meet what you’re imagining; at finest, it could open incomplete.
If this fictional fifth gate at Walt Disney World had been on par with Walt Disney Studios Park (Paris), Disney’s California Journey, or Hong Kong Disneyland when any of these opened, the expertise can be totally underwhelming. Constructing Shanghai Disneyland…because it exists right this moment…in Florida, USA…within the yr 2030 would price no less than $12 billion as soon as all is claimed and achieved. Possibly extra. Need Tokyo DisneySea? Say goodbye to just about the whole lot of the $17 billion.
As thrilling as that may be–and it’d be very thrilling!–it’s tough to advocate for that when Animal Kingdom continues to be a half-day park for many visitors and in want of 2-3 extra rides. When Disney’s Hollywood Studios wants extra all-ages points of interest in order that its headliners don’t common 60+ minute waits. When EPCOT, even post-overhaul, wants one other new World Showcase pavilion and reimaginings to some rides on the entrance of the park.
And people are simply the issues that actually ought to be achieved on the current parks. That checklist didn’t embody Past Massive Thunder at Magic Kingdom. Not as a result of I feel it’s a nasty concept, however as a result of Magic Kingdom “wants” the least assist. (It’s going to occur, regardless.) There are a ton of discretionary tasks that would occur on the current gates to essentially enhance them, and Past Massive Thunder is a type of.
Exterior of the Dinoland plot, there’s a ton of unused or underutilized house in Animal Kingdom. That park already has nice bones–now how about a few all-new (not substitute) lands–that turns it right into a 1.5 day park? There’s countless potential at EPCOT. Backstage services might be relocated at Disney’s Hollywood Studios, permitting for the smallest park to develop into bigger (and have an easier-to-navigate) format. Imagineering is loads able to dreaming up tens of billions of {dollars} of implausible concepts for the prevailing 4 parks at Walt Disney World.
In case you’re not persuaded that fixing or constructing out the prevailing parks is the appropriate plan of action, I get it. The shiny new object (fifth gate) is at all times going to be extra thrilling. However how about with this added to the combination: the infrastructure prices alone of constructing a brand new theme park would eat away no less than $2 billion of that $17 billion. So except you’re a highway and drainage fanatic, these are sunk prices that may not improve your trip.
Said otherwise, let’s say that if the corporate merely chooses to broaden current parks, we’d get round $13 billion value of recent stuff, whereas we’d get $11 billion in complete if there’s a brand new gate thrown into the combination. (I’ve already skimmed $4 billion from the highest below the idea that it’ll go to DVC/resorts or different non-attractions tasks, regardless.)
For me, the reply is simple: I’ll take a maximization of the funding, and have that cash allotted in the direction of increasing the prevailing parks and reimagining rides which can be at the moment underutilized or outdated. I do know that’s not the thrilling selection and could be an unpopular opinion. However the different is the present 4 gates stagnating for no less than a full decade–and that’s assuming a brand new gate can be correctly built-out within the first place, and wouldn’t require one other decade to repair or broaden.
As a Disney fan, I’ve lived via many years of stagnation and I don’t actually need a repeat of that. From my perspective, the final decade was far, much better. Positive, I feel every little thing took too lengthy and an honest sum of money was poorly allotted at EPCOT. However no less than a part of that may be blamed on the pandemic, and hopefully that received’t occur once more. If management coalesces round a transparent imaginative and prescient for Walt Disney World’s 10-year plan, the fruits of that within the current 4 parks might be implausible.
The present parks are nice, however they’ve a whole lot of untapped potential and room for enchancment. I’d slightly see billions of {dollars} invested into the present 4 parks than for them to be uncared for for 10+ years. The excellent news, no less than from my perspective, is that Walt Disney World followers don’t get a vote on this. My opinion and your opinion don’t matter within the least–that is the route that Disney has already indicated it’s going to go.
Planning a Walt Disney World journey? Find out about resorts on our Walt Disney World Lodges Evaluations web page. For the place to eat, learn our Walt Disney World Restaurant Evaluations. To economize on tickets or decide which kind to purchase, learn our Suggestions for Saving Cash on Walt Disney World Tickets submit. Our What to Pack for Disney Journeys submit takes a novel have a look at intelligent objects to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Journey Guides will assist. For complete recommendation, the very best place to begin is our Walt Disney World Journey Planning Information for every little thing it’s worthwhile to know!
Your Ideas
Do you assume a fifth gate is on the horizon at Walt Disney World? Would you prefer to see $10 billion of that $17 billion spent on a brand-new theme park, or would you like it spent on constructing out the prevailing 4 parks? Do you agree or disagree with our causes as to why one is unlikely–or fascinating–within the foreseeable future? Another ideas or commentary so as to add? Any questions we will help you reply? Listening to your suggestions–even once you disagree with us–is each fascinating to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas beneath within the feedback!