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Wait instances at Walt Disney World for Independence Day 2024 had been as soon as once more low, following up final yr when experiences of the parks being “useless” or “ghost cities” made nationwide information and prompted a response from CEO Bob Iger. This discusses the explanations for decrease crowds throughout what was a preferred vacation.
No less than partly, this gained’t come as a shock to common readers of this weblog. Final month, we revealed Summer time (Nonetheless) Is NOT Excessive Crowds Season at Walt Disney World. The title just about says all of it, so I’m not going to rehash all of that. The underside line is that summer season crowds have been unpredictable and inconsistent the final a number of years.
Summer time hasn’t been peak season for some time–since 2016. There have been a few years that had been anomalies in the course of the pent-up demand interval, which might be an enormous motive why some followers are being caught off-guard by the summer season slowdown at Walt Disney World in 2024. As a result of it hasn’t been the case that summer season has constantly been sluggish over the past 7 years.
You additionally may recall that Independence Day 2023 was downright useless at Walt Disney World. It was such a scorching matter that it drew an evidence from CEO Bob Iger, who attributed the slowness to an exhaustion of pent-up demand in Florida as an entire and unseasonably unhealthy climate. He wasn’t improper…however he additionally wasn’t fully appropriate.
Other than Independence Day, summer season crowd ranges had been decrease throughout the board final yr. Definitely not on par with the low season that adopted, however not what you’d count on when you final skilled summer season at Walt Disney World earlier than 2016. It was downright pleasant! Nicely…as long as you possibly can endure the depraved climate. Minor asterisk.
The identical factor has been true as soon as once more this summer season, together with Independence Day 2024. Per Thrill-Information, Walt Disney World as an entire had a crowd degree of 1/10 with a mean wait time of 26 minutes on July 4, 2024. For reference, that’s down as in comparison with the final two weeks of June, which had common wait instances of 35 minutes (second to final week) and 31 minutes (final week).
Nonetheless, it’s up as in comparison with final Independence Day, when the typical wait time was solely 22 minutes–that was on par with a few of the slowest days within the August and September low season!
Not all parks had been equally uncrowded on July 4, 2024. Magic Kingdom outperformed barely; EPCOT did so massively, with an 8/10 crowd degree. These two parks being busiest is especially unsurprising since they’re the one two with particular Fourth of July fireworks reveals and there’s at present a ticket deal that forestalls Park Hopping.
It’s additionally value declaring that crowd ranges measure are statistical–which means they measure wait instances, not congestion. Often, wait instances are proxy for crowds, however not at all times. Magic Kingdom and EPCOT fireworks viewing areas on Independence Day are a first-rate instance of this exception–and had been undoubtedly very busy.
Then there’s Animal Kingdom and Hollywood Studios, which had been sluggish by any subjective or goal measure. Animal Kingdom had its lowest common wait time–23 minutes–since Might 15. Hollywood Studios had a mean wait time of 25 minutes, which is extraordinarily low for DHS (remember that it has a ‘top-heavy’ journey roster of sights that submit excessive wait instances and stage reveals that don’t submit wait instances). July 4 was tied for the slowest day at DHS since final yr’s late summer season/early fall low season.
For reference, it additionally began as a sluggish summer season at Common Orlando, however they’ve since turned issues round. That enhance roughly coincides with the launch of CineSational in mid-June; that could be correlation, although, as Walt Disney World additionally noticed a bounce across the similar time. In any case, Common Orlando has been noticeably busier this week, with 4/10 crowd ranges on July 4, 2024. (It’s value noting that the Common Mega Film Parade simply debuted, and appears superb.)
With wait instances information out of the best way, let’s discuss attainable theories as to why the Independence Day vacation weekend hasn’t been busy at Walt Disney World…
Economic system – I’m going to begin with two controversial ones, which is able to inevitably come up within the feedback–so may as properly deal with them within the physique of the article. Nobody can agree on the state of the U.S. financial system–not even economists. It is a weblog about Disney, so although I’ve just lately watched The Large Quick and Margin Name (thus making me an skilled on this kind of factor), maybe it’s past our scope.
What I’ll say is that not each American is experiencing the identical financial system and there are conflicting statistics which have befuddled economists in terms of strong shopper spending–that they’ve simply kind of hand waved away as “YOLO spending.” (Actually, that in all probability is smart–individuals obtained used to doing sure issues and spending sure methods in the course of the pent-up demand interval, resulting in way of life creep. Others reevaluated their priorities in the course of the pandemic.)
However none of that actually issues right here, as there’s key information that tells a reasonably conclusive story. The TSA forecast a record-setting Fourth of July 2024 vacation journey timeframe. TSA projected to display screen greater than 32 million vacationers between Friday, June 28, and Monday, July 8, 2024. That’s a 5.4% year-over-year enhance in journey for the vacation. That is after TSA has already set document after document for screenings in 2024, beating final yr and even pre-pandemic numbers of 2019.
For its half, AAA tasks 70.9 million vacationers will head 50 miles or extra from house over the Independence Day vacation journey interval. (Related as a result of AAA numbers cowl flying and driving.) AAA analyzed the whole Fourth of July week, plus the Saturday earlier than and the Sunday after the vacation. This yr’s projected variety of vacationers for that point interval is a 5% enhance in comparison with 2023 and an 8% enhance over 2019.
AAA reserving information reveals home airfare is 2% cheaper this Independence Day week in comparison with final yr, and the typical value for a home roundtrip ticket is $800. (That is truly properly below-trend for summer season as an entire; home airfare is down roughly 5% to 9.5% year-over-year.)
In line with AAA, gasoline costs are decrease than final yr when the nationwide common was $3.53. AAA additionally signifies that Orlando, Florida is without doubt one of the prime journey locations this Independence Day vacation weekend. (Additionally making the listing had been Seattle and Anchorage–not cities I’d usually affiliate with the Fourth of July.)
The Better Orlando Aviation Authority expects Orlando Worldwide Airport (MCO) to have about 700,000 departing passengers over the nine-day interval from June 29 to July 7. There will likely be greater than 85,000 departures on Saturday, July 6, which is predicted to be the very best quantity day.
The underside line is that no matter points may exist with the U.S. financial system, the American shopper remains to be spending freely and going locations for Independence Day. It’s actually not impacting journey as an entire, though it may have an effect on what shoppers are doing as soon as arriving at their locations.
Politics – Every time the subject of decrease crowds at Walt Disney World comes up, there are some commentators who rush to attribute this to politics. These similar voices had been surprisingly silent between Christmas and New Yr’s Eve when Walt Disney World noticed document excessive wait instances. (Identical goes for some other vacation week or time when the parks have been busy.)
I’m not suggesting that politics have had zero influence on Walt Disney World attendance. I don’t doubt for a second that some households have cancelled journeys because of this. We’ve heard from many who’ve! However conversely, I additionally suspect others have been enticed to go to on account of Disney’s perceived politics. (Larger image, I feel each of those statements apply to the state of Florida as an entire, which is equally polarizing.)
What I do assume is that that is all occurring on the margins. That the typical visitor doesn’t a lot care or gained’t alter their trip plans on account of politics. That there’s quite a lot of bluster, however it’s coming from a vocal minority and possibly even that group’s personal habits doesn’t match their phrases. There are simply a half-dozen higher explanations for Walt Disney World crowd dynamics than politics, particularly since attendance traits have had ups and downs within the final couple of years.
Regardless, it’s troublesome to conceive of politics as an evidence for a slower Independence Day at Walt Disney World. No matter influence politics is or isn’t having, it’s throughout the board. We’re on the lookout for theories as to why this vacation weekend, particularly, has seen a slowdown. It’s not like these upset with Disney’s politics are boycotting on the Fourth of July (essentially the most patriotic day of the yr at Walt Disney World!), and as a substitute choosing September 17. That’s not how this works.
Pricing – Throughout the board, summer season at Walt Disney World is costlier than a couple of decade in the past for each tickets and lodge rooms. This explains why cost-sensitive shoppers with flexibility have shifted their journey dates to different instances of yr than summer season. (It might additionally, at the least partly, clarify the rising recognition of January and February.)
Recognizing the truth that summer season costs have discouraged guests, Walt Disney World has sought to treatment this with ticket offers (the Florida Resident Uncover Disney Ticket and 4-Park, 4-Day Walt Disney World Magic Ticket for most of the people). They’ve additionally launched a bevy of massive reductions, together with a reprise of the favored Free Eating supply.
These offers have helped and undoubtedly moved the needle for 2024 (which means numbers could be even worse however for these promos!), however there’s an enormous asterisk to this. These promos have additionally attracted extra cost-sensitive shoppers…and you recognize what that demo will do? Comparability store.
The Independence Day vacation weekend is a part of the “Summer time Vacation” room fee season, which is significantly costlier per evening than simply the common ole “Summer time” season earlier than and after. The latter isn’t low cost within the first place–for planners who can simply maintain out till the second week in August, costs fall off a cliff.
It’s not simply pricier on-site lodges or tickets (if company don’t purchase the aforementioned discounted ones). Nearly each side of touring over the vacation weekend is costlier, since journey costs are largely demand-driven. As in comparison with the remainder of the summer season season, this implies increased common airfare, rental automobiles, off-site lodges, and extra.
Climate – We’ve coated climate lots currently, so I don’t need to belabor this level. Particularly because it explains summer season traits, extra broadly, and never only one weekend. (And once more, together with pricing, climate paints an image of why January and February are getting busier and June and July are slowing.)
In a nutshell, Floridians keep house when the forecast turns unseasonably scorching, humid or wet. July 4, 2024 noticed sweltering climate as soon as once more–with one other warmth wave in Central Florida. Highs have been within the mid-90s with warmth indices round 105° to 112° and Warmth Advisories in place. That is undoubtedly sufficient to get some locals to alter their Fourth of July plans.
Vacationers can’t shortly pivot and people already booked gained’t cancel–however they’ll doubtless spend much less time within the parks per day. So whereas they could possibly be shifting journeys away from the summer season months on account of extra experiences of oppressive climate, it’s not like those that do e-book Fourth of July journeys are staying away from the parks. No less than, not disproportionately versus different summer season days.
As a lot as I hate excessive warmth and humidity, I feel it’s overblown as a think about decrease Fourth of July crowds. Summer time as an entire, certain. However it’s not the principle motive why Walt Disney World has seen a disproportionate decelerate over the Independence Day weekend the final couple years, even when it’s the excuse Bob Iger used final yr.
Annual Passes – Saving what I feel is one of the best principle for final is Annual Passes. It is a multifaceted one. First, each the Pixie Go and the Pirate Go–two reasonably priced admission choices for locals–are blocked out the majority of Independence Day weekend (July 3 to July 6/7). That’s much more Floridians than regular who thus wouldn’t be within the parks over the lengthy weekend, which ought to end in an exaggerated model of the ‘wonky weekends’ dynamic we’ve been speaking about for over a yr.
We’ve lengthy suspected that there’s a disproportionate variety of Pixie Mud Annual Passes in circulation, largely as a result of it was the one AP tier that was offered for over a yr. Though that hasn’t been the case for some time, inertia has in all probability stored the discrepancy going. Floridians obtained used to paying a lower cost, discovered it labored out simply fantastic for them, and didn’t improve when it got here time to resume. And at a bit over half the price of the Pirate Go, the value is actually proper–particularly for cost-conscious locals.
Walt Disney World doesn’t launch statistical breakdowns of its AP inhabitants, so that is solely principle. Nonetheless, it’s additionally corroborated by crowds. Every time these passes (particularly Pixie Mud) are blocked out past their regular weekends, it reveals up in wait instances information. Keep in mind again to early-on on this Spring Break season, when the parks had been packed earlier than what ought to’ve been the height–after which had been useless the next weeks throughout Orange County’s recess?
That was not-so-coincidentally earlier than and after a prolonged Pixie Mud Go blockout. There are numerous different examples like this, with a rush of locals “getting their Disney repair” earlier than a blockout after which decrease crowds throughout it. It additionally occurs yearly in January when the blockouts elevate, and occurred final yr for Independence Day and Labor Day. This clarification is well-supported by two years of knowledge.
My second principle right here is much less supported by information. It’s that fewer Floridian households and good friend teams all have the upper tiers of Annual Passes (or APs in any respect), and are thus choosing vacation gatherings and actions that everybody can do to keep away from exclusion. Anecdotally, that is one thing we’ve felt firsthand (and have heard from loads of others).
Whereas it was the case that total good friend teams had increased tier Annual Passes at Walt Disney World or Disneyland and made the parks their default hangout spot, that’s not the case. Anecdotally, I’d additionally add that that is interconnected with climate.
Independence Day gatherings are sometimes all-day affairs (whether or not on the parks or elsewhere) for locals, with the excessive warmth and humidity making that much less fascinating–particularly when you may drop in for a night and catch fireworks any ole evening later in July. All of this mixed makes yard barbecues, seashore days, and so forth., extra interesting to Floridians (and Californians) than the parks.
Finally, my sturdy suspicion is that the final issue–Annual Passes–is the result determinative one. That when you took the precise vacationer attendance of Independence Day weekend and added the common Annual Passholder attendance for this summer season, the quantity would come out trying pretty near regular Summer time 2024 days at Walt Disney World. Possibly even increased than regular.
However once more, “regular” by Summer time 2024 requirements remains to be a shadow of what issues had been like earlier than 2016. Even after that, Independence Day continued to be very busy at Walt Disney World for at the least a few years. It was not a peak season vacation like Easter, Thanksgiving, Christmas, New Yr’s Eve, and so forth., however it additionally wasn’t average–like Memorial Day or Labor Day.
For my part, that’s the place the opposite explanations come into play. Pricing is actually the large one. On condition that Walt Disney World has already priced out quite a lot of vacationers all through the summer season, it actually doesn’t assist that the Independence Day weekend has even increased vacation weekend pricing. Value-conscious shoppers and anybody else comparability purchasing might be contemplating different weeks because of this (particularly in the event that they erroneously concern that the Fourth of July weekend may have increased crowds).
It’ll be attention-grabbing to see whether or not there’s a bounce-back in crowds after the vacation weekend concludes. Late June ended up seeing a slight spike, which is changing into typical of summer season season. Often, there’s a second spike on the finish of July, which we’ve attributed to ‘final hurrah’ summer season vacationers taking journeys earlier than college goes again into session. After this weekend’s blockouts conclude, I may see a gradual enhance in crowd ranges by way of the tip of July 2024. It’s protected to say these numbers, no matter they’re, will drop in early August.
The large wildcard this yr is Free Eating (which wasn’t supplied final yr), which simply began at first of the month. My intestine says that’ll have a extra pronounced influence on ADRs than crowd ranges, because the promotion hasn’t moved the needle that a lot on attendance up to now (most company come from off-site and solely a small subset of on-site company e-book Free Eating). Regardless, I’d count on wait instances to extend beginning July 8, 2024. It’s very troublesome to say by how a lot. This isn’t precisely a daring prediction given how low they at present are…just about just one approach they will go!
Planning a Walt Disney World journey? Find out about lodges on our Walt Disney World Resorts Evaluations web page. For the place to eat, learn our Walt Disney World Restaurant Evaluations. To economize on tickets or decide which kind to purchase, learn our Suggestions for Saving Cash on Walt Disney World Tickets submit. Our What to Pack for Disney Journeys submit takes a singular take a look at intelligent objects to take. For what to do and when to do it, our Walt Disney World Trip Guides will assist. For complete recommendation, one of the best place to begin is our Walt Disney World Journey Planning Information for every thing it’s good to know!
Your Ideas
Do you agree or disagree with our evaluation as to why Independence Day vacation weekend crowds at Walt Disney World have been below-average? Or, do you disagree solely, and assume it’s been as busy–or busier–than regular? Any observations about attendance traits in the course of the fall months that comply with this summer season dip? Listening to your suggestions about your experiences is each attention-grabbing to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas or questions under within the feedback!
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