Faculty is again in session and crowds have plummeted to their lowest ranges in 3 years for the low season at Walt Disney World. This wait occasions report covers information for Magic Kingdom, EPCOT, Hollywood Studios, and Animal Kingdom. It additionally presents commentary in regards to the why of attendance tendencies, ‘seems like’ crowds vs. wait occasions, and forward-looking predictions for Fall 2024.
Walt Disney World has not been busy for the previous couple of months. It was a gradual summer season at Orlando’s theme parks, as mentioned at size in Summer season (Nonetheless) Is NOT Busy Season at Walt Disney World. That gives our theories as to why summer season was slower, in addition to why it’s probably not all that stunning.
Through the firm’s most up-to-date earnings name, Disney CEO Bob Iger reiterated this and warned traders of attendance softness and demand moderation via 2025. That’s additionally nothing new, as the corporate has cautioned of a slowdown at Walt Disney World. They’ve beforehand attributed this to the tip of “revenge journey,” lapping the fiftieth Anniversary, and poor climate. The variations now are two-fold.
First, these warnings are not nearly Walt Disney World. Again final 12 months when this began taking place throughout earnings calls, there was a distinction drawn between Walt Disney World and just about in every single place else, with the distinction attributed to pent-up demand arriving earlier (and thus ending sooner) in Florida than California, Disney Cruise Line, and the worldwide parks. It made sense and is one thing we witnessed firsthand. Now, the remainder of the Parks & Resorts are feeling what started at Walt Disney World.
Second, there are not unfavorable or troublesome comparisons for Walt Disney World. The fiftieth and pent-up demand ended over one 12 months in the past. The comparisons now are literally fairly favorable, and Walt Disney World continues to be reporting weaker year-over-year outcomes. This isn’t totally a narrative of attendance (the earnings calls don’t concentrate on that as a key metric), however we’re seeing it play out by way of crowds, too. Therefore Walt Disney World simply wrapping up its slowest month and week since 2021!
As at all times, what’s coated in these “crowd” studies is definitely posted wait time information that’s pulled from My Disney Expertise and compiled into graphs for monitoring and evaluating numerous days, weeks, months, and years. Lots might be gleaned from posted wait occasions, however it’s not essentially conclusive of in-park congestion or crowds.
Posted wait occasions supply perception into how busy Walt Disney World is, however they’re an imperfect measure of crowds. They’re virtually at all times inflated, some strains don’t put up wait occasions, they don’t account for Lightning Lane modifications, EPCOT festivals, and so forth. However, wait occasions are the one goal measure of crowds that now we have. On-the-ground observations might be helpful, however in addition they have shortcomings.
Body of reference additionally issues. The vast majority of days in 2024 might be extra crowded than their counterparts a decade or extra in the past. Identical goes for evaluating this 12 months to 2020-2021. Actually, the one worthwhile historic comparisons are from 2022 to 2024 and 2018 to 2019. Should you’re anticipating crowd ranges on par with the Nineties, Nice Recession or post-COVID reopening, you’re going to be dissatisfied–and conclude that Walt Disney World is “at all times busy.”
We simply wish to supply these essential caveats to emphasize the constraints of crowd studies and wait time information for Walt Disney World. Should you assume there are too many asterisks hooked up, that’s honest–possibly such a put up will not be for you. With that out of the best way, let’s dig into the info and take a look at Walt Disney World wait occasions. As at all times, all graphs and stats are courtesy of Thrill-Knowledge.com:
We’ll begin with the month-to-month numbers for Walt Disney World as an entire over the course of the final 12 months.
What’s most attention-grabbing about that is seeing a lower each single month since February. In a traditional 12 months, there can be a noticeable spike for spring break and Easter, adopted by a shoulder season slowdown after which summer season spike (or two). Even with summers being much less busy within the final decade, this was the dynamic we had been seeing.
As a substitute, this 12 months has proven a gradual and regular lower. It’s particularly uncommon for Might to be busier than July, which is one thing that by no means occurs–however did in 2024! Unsurprisingly, August continued that pattern. In actual fact, let’s zoom out a bit additional…
The above graph exhibits month-to-month crowd ranges for the reason that begin of 2019, and from that, we are able to see that August 2024 was the slowest month at Walt Disney World since October 2021.
For reference, October 2021 was a really bizarre time at Walt Disney World. As you would possibly recall, the Delta variant and reinstated masks guidelines put a significant damper on attendance, inflicting a deluge of cancellations from all kinds of company (albeit for 2, primarily reverse, causes). That was additional exacerbated by fears of Walt Disney World’s fiftieth Anniversary drawing record-setting crowds. Clearly, it didn’t.
Due to the anomalies of crowd ranges in mid-2020 via early 2022, we seldom use these for drawing comparisons. They had been low for unprecedented causes that hopefully won’t ever be repeated once more. However, it is vitally noteworthy every time crowd ranges fall to lows not seen since 2020-2021, as occurred final month.
With the week by week view, we are able to see that crowds had been pretty fixed this summer season. Should you look carefully, you’ll be able to spot a downward pattern, however it’s gradual. There have been three slight spikes–on the tail finish of June, once more on the finish of July, and eventually proper earlier than college went again into session in August–however even these solely received numbers again to Might ranges. None of that is unusual for the summer season season; it was simply decrease this 12 months than prior to now.
What’s additionally not stunning is that crowd ranges have been dropping beginning with the second week of August. As with the month as an entire, the final week of August was the slowest at Walt Disney World for the reason that final week of September into early October 2021.
Let’s zoom out to see the weekly information since 2019:
That’s a stunning statistic at first blush–the bottom crowd week and month since 2021! Nevertheless it actually shouldn’t be. The identical week final 12 months was simply barely busier, with a 25 minute common and 1/10 crowd degree versus a 23 minute common and 1/10 crowd degree this 12 months. Two minutes can add up over the course of a day, however each weeks had been extremely gradual–the 2 least busy weeks since October 2021!
Given the general trajectory of crowd ranges and the final week of August being reliably gradual year-in and year-out, this shouldn’t be an enormous shock. I’m pretty assured in predicting the final week of August 2025 may also be gradual. Whether or not it’s kind of busy than this 12 months in all probability is dependent upon the broader economic system, Epic Universe, and the Disney Starlight night time parade in addition to a possible summer season occasion.
Particular person days illustrate principally the identical, however with extra bars.
From August 27 to 30, daily had a mean wait time of 19-21 minutes. Once you’re taking a look at resort-wide numbers for a multi-day stretch, these are insanely low. Remember the fact that a number of sights backside out at 10 minute or 13 minute wait occasions even once they’re stroll ons. Then there are some movies that put up wait occasions on the premise of how lengthy it’s till the following exhibiting. So for the stats to be this low, which means the headliners additionally needed to have far decrease wait occasions than regular. They usually did!
I used to be within the parks doing field-testing each single day of that stretch (at first it was presupposed to be Lightning Lane Multi Go testing, however I needed to postpone these plans as a result of it was too straightforward), and I used to be shocked by how low crowds had been. Seven Dwarfs Mine Practice with a posted 25 minute wait in the course of the center of the day (on a non-party day!), House Mountain at 10 minutes, and even Avatar Flight of Passage being a close to walk-on earlier than 3 pm! Regardless of my caveating above about ‘seems like’ crowds vs. wait occasions, these numbers paint a wholly correct image of how issues felt.
Labor Day weekend really noticed a slight spike in crowds, however nonetheless wasn’t dangerous in any respect. The low crowds over the vacation made the rounds on social media, however this shouldn’t be in the slightest degree stunning for readers of this weblog. We defined the ‘why’ of that and provided historic stats again in Labor Day Weekend Isn’t Busy at Disney.
For park by park evaluation, we’ll begin with Magic Kingdom.
Magic Kingdom has already began its “porcupine sample” of crowds for Occasion Season, with full working days being noticeably busier than days of Mickey’s Not So Scary Halloween Occasion. (Notice that this does not embrace wait occasions throughout MNSSHP–solely earlier than it begins.) That is mirrored within the wait time information and it’s much more evident from the in-park expertise. Suffice to say, all of Magic Kingdom’s 10 slowest days of the 12 months have come for the reason that begin of August.
See Greatest & Worst 2024 Crowd Days at Magic Kingdom for a fool-proof listing of the least and most crowded dates at Magic Kingdom between now and December 2024. This features a handful of crimson flag dates to keep away from in any respect prices.
Animal Kingdom has seen its crowd ranges everywhere this month. Simply final week, common wait occasions ranged from 20 minutes at some point to 40 minutes one other day. That’s an enormous unfold–actually a doubling–and one with out an apparent clarification.
The excellent news is that, as at all times, early mornings and late afternoons stay “undefeated” and precise wait occasions are minimal throughout these timeframes even on a busier day. Fortunately, these busier days ought to be far much less widespread over the course of September.
Over at EPCOT, wait occasions have flatlined for the reason that begin of summer season.
EPCOT is at all times a wildcard, however I’ll admit that this one caught me unexpectedly. We at all times level out that EPCOT is the locals’ park, and Floridians usually tend to go to for festivals and environment than rides. This summer season was Food regimen EPCOT, explaining the decrease crowds as soon as Flower & Backyard ended.
Nevertheless, the 2024 EPCOT Meals & Wine Pageant is now underway and it nonetheless hasn’t actually spiked crowds. In actual fact, the primary two days of the occasion had 1/10 crowd ranges with 19 minute common waits. I used to be there for the primary 5 days of the occasion, and “seems like” crowds weren’t any worse. It was downright surprising, particularly for the reason that climate for the primary few days was high quality (by Florida in August and September requirements). I’d be involved about this if I had been Disney administration, and it underscores why they will’t simply cellphone within the festivals and anticipate locals to eat up re-microwaved leftovers.
Lastly, there’s Disney’s Hollywood Studios.
As at all times, that is the park with the best common wait occasions in all of Walt Disney World, owing to its disproportionate variety of headliners coupled with stage exhibits that put up no wait occasions in any respect (and thus don’t drag down averages). Might via the third week of August was pretty unremarkable at DHS.
Then got here final week, culminating in August 29. That day had a 20 minute common, which is insanely low by Disney’s Hollywood Studios requirements. Low because the crowds had been at EPCOT, I assume Meals & Wine did pull folks away from DHS?
For the sake of comparability, right here’s a high-level take a look at the weekly wait time averages for Common Orlando. No shock right here–it was additionally the slowest week of the 12 months at Common (and August was the slowest month).
Common has additionally been protecting restricted hours, with neither park open later than 8 pm throughout common operations all through September. One thing tells me that if all 4 Walt Disney World parks did this, followers wouldn’t be forgiving, however as at all times, Common will get a cross.
We’ve talked about it earlier than, however Common Orlando has had a tough 12 months with attendance down 9.3% and Comcast revealing that income at Common’s theme parks was down 11%. Comcast attributed the lower to an absence of recent sights in Orlando, and indicated that this downtrend was prone to proceed till the opening of Epic Universe in 2025.
Turning to commentary, I really don’t have a ton so as to add from my on-the-ground experiences. The wait occasions, by and enormous, inform the total story. There’s nothing contradictory within the seems like crowds neither is there any good strategy to clarify away the low crowds. Positive, there was “some climate” over the vacation weekend, however final week was really pretty high quality (once more, by Florida in August and September requirements, which could be very a lot graded on a curve).
This is the reason I used to be so arduous on the 2024 EPCOT Meals & Wine Pageant. Within the face of falling attendance, it feels a bit of like Walt Disney World is asleep on the wheel. I’m bullish in regards to the D23 bulletins and assume Walt Disney World goes to be in nice form for 2027 via 2030 or so. These might be big drivers of attendance, a lot as Pandora via Cosmic Rewind offered an enormous increase throughout that growth section.
The issue is that 2027, by my math, is 3 years away. What’s Walt Disney World’s plan for the brief time period? Disney Starlight Parade is a pleasant begin and could possibly be a implausible addition for subsequent summer season. However why cellphone within the EPCOT festivals proper now? Why not add leisure or give folks a compelling cause to go to proper now?! Discounting actually helps, however it will possibly solely take them up to now. So what’s the remainder of the plan? It doesn’t appear to be there may be one.
Trying ahead, our expectation is that crowds proceed falling for not less than a pair extra weeks. As mentioned in our listing of the 10 Greatest and 10 Worst Weeks to Go to Walt Disney World in 2024 to 2025, September is the most effective month of the 12 months to go to from a wait occasions perspective. With solely a few exceptions, all the month sees beneath common attendance.
There’s actually no “dangerous” time to go to so far as the September 2024 crowd calendar goes. The final week or two would be the busiest stretch of the month because of the expiration of ticket offers. Relying upon what number of locals purchased these and are dashing to make use of them on the final minute, September may find yourself being barely busier than August. Nevertheless, “busier” is a relative time period, as each months ought to be actually mild in comparison with the whole thing of October. August and September are one of many final bastions of the low season at Walt Disney World.
This has been persistently true at the same time as attendance has spiked throughout different beforehand low season months. Whereas different low season months have gotten busier, September has stayed the identical–and (knock on wooden) at all times ought to stay that manner attributable to college schedules and fewer fascinating climate. There’s a risk that September 2024 might be busier than final 12 months attributable to worldwide guests, the tip of the ticket deal, or different wildcards, however it nonetheless shouldn’t be dangerous by any goal metric.
In the end, our expectation is that attendance continues to lower over the course of the following couple weeks, however in all probability not sufficient for September to take the crown from August because the least crowded month at Walt Disney World in 2023. The most important query might be whether or not final week will find yourself being the slowest since 2021, or if this week or subsequent week will dethrone it as soon as the mud settles.
Trying ahead even additional, the massive query marks are group occasions and conference crowds. There’s an outdoor likelihood that the final week of September sees an outsized spike due the arrival of those, plus early fall breaks for numerous college districts across the nation. However for probably the most half, it ought to nonetheless be too early for all of that to meaningfully influence crowds.
My expectation is that the actual arrival of fall crowds coincides with Columbus Day weekend, and that continues to speed up with solely minor reprieves right here and there all through the vacation season. Early indicators level to October via December being the three busiest months of the 12 months (on common), albeit with the conventional pockets of reasonable crowd ranges between the height vacation weeks. Who is aware of, although. Crowds have been falling all 12 months lengthy and, apart from reductions, Walt Disney World has achieved completely nothing to entice followers to return.
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YOUR THOUGHTS
Ideas on early fall crowds at Walt Disney World? Predictions for the remainder of the month or fall low season? Should you’ve visited throughout the final month, what did you consider wait occasions? Have you ever achieved Magic Kingdom in the course of the day of a MNSSHP night time? What about posted vs. precise wait occasions? Do you agree or disagree with something in our report? Any questions we will help you reply? Listening to your suggestions–even if you disagree with us–is each attention-grabbing to us and useful to different readers, so please share your ideas beneath within the feedback!